Metaculus, a community of forecasters, predicts that human-like AI will be available by 2026
I’m still with the 2029 camp. It would be nice if it happened soon. I still predict ASI five years after the arrival of Agi.
Metaculus, an online community that forecasts the future, predicts a weak AI similar to humans in January 2026. This is approximately 25 years earlier than early 2020 predictions.
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform that focuses on accumulating and refining the predictions of various topics, including events, scientific advancements, technological breakthroughs and more. Participants answer questions on the platform and then combine their answers to create a consensus forecast.
Metaculus’ scoring system encourages participants to make accurate predictions, and tracks their performance over time. The system encourages participants to update and revisit their forecasts when new information is available. Anyone who wishes to participate is welcome to use the platform.
Source:
https://the-decoder.com/forecasting-community-metaculus-predicts-human-like-ai-by-2026/
